Forecast the Tipping Point - How to Capture the Wave of Opportunity

As more and more companies adopt the newWhen the market takes off, you want to be ready.
technology, market momentum starts taking on a lifeIdeally you will be actively working accounts before
of its own. At this point you want to be able toyour prospect start their decision making process. If
forecast when the tipping point will occur, so you willyou have anticipated who needs the solution
be well positioned to take advantage of it. Thecorrectly, you might be the first one to approach the
tipping point is when the benefits of adopting theprospect with the technology's value. Being first is a
discontinuous innovation overcome the pain cause bybig advantage, especially as the market develops and
not adopting it. It is the moment in time whenbecomes more competitive.
adoption becomes inevitable and anyone who doesn'tGeoffrey Moore identifies this stage of market
adopt will be left behind.development as the "tornado" in his book, Inside the
In his fascinating book, The Tipping Point, MalcolmTornado. This is "when demand dramatically outstrips
Gladwell makes three key points about what causessupply and a huge backlog of customers appear
people to change, which has important implicationsovernight... It represents a massive sale opportunity in
for selling up the technology adoption curve.and of itself, it also represents an even larger
Change is contagious.follow-on market opportunity." In other words, it is
Once people see he early adopters enjoying thean extraordinary sales opportunity that you don't
benefits of a new technology, they are going towant to miss because you aren't ready for it.
want to enjoy them, too. Ask your early adoptersTo forecast the tipping point, you estimate how long
for testimonials describing the superiority of yourit will take for your early adopters to implement their
solution. Many early adopters expect a lot of specialfirst projects successfully. Then you project the
services. They know that your success depends onsame amount of time into the future and divide by
their satisfaction, so they use it as leverage to gettwo. This should give you a rough estimate of the
you to do a lot of extra work for them for free.tipping point for your solution.
Make sure that in return they will write youMarket analysts make their living predicting the
testimonial letters and allow you to bring otherfuture, so they are a good source for statistics
customers to see the successfully implementedabout market adoption. However, a more practical
solution. A reference base will be critical to yourand reliable source of information may be the
success when the market takes off.observation of your prospects' behavior. As the
Little causes can have big effects.market evolves from visionary, early adopters to the
The market drivers that cause the market tomore practical and pragmatic early majority buyers,
accelerate can often be small changes that happen atyou are getting closer to the tipping point. As
the right time. Thanks to your market perspective,prospects' adoption motivators change from building
you are more likely to recognize the little causes thatcompetitive advantage or developing new markets
end up tipping the market. Market analysts rarely pickto improving productivity and performance, the
up little causes. You have to be close to themarket is gaining momentum. When prospects start
customer to figure out the real reasons that causeasking you more questions about where your solution
the new solution to work. Once you do recognizehas been successfully implemented and what were
them, use them to map how the market will evolve,the measurable results it produced, you can be sure
so you can anticipate each new wave of prospects.that the tipping point is drawing closer.
Change happens in a hurry.